NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – In the context of a prolonged economic expansion, the U.S. stock bull market has now entered its fifth year on Monday after experiencing four years of consecutive gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has risen approximately 119% since its bear-market closing low on October 12, 2022. That session marked the index’s lowest close since November 2020 at 3,577.03. By Friday, it closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase for 2026, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This current cycle marks the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, and notably, it is the seventh to persist for at least four years. Its 119% rise falls short of the average gain of 184% observed across all studied bull markets. The 2009-to-2020 cycle experienced a 401% increase, while the 1987-to-2000 rally soared by 582%. These earlier periods remain some of the most substantial long-term market gains in the comparison.
Historical data indicates that fifth-year performances have generally been positive, although outcomes have varied between cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six continued beyond their fourth anniversary. For those that did, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Additionally, previous market cycles during their fifth year experienced an average maximum drawdown of about 14%. These figures are based on past patterns and do not necessarily predict the current market trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Continue to Support Market Growth
The ongoing advance is heavily supported by corporate profitability. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings were 29.6% higher than the same period last year as of October 9. This marks the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25%. By the end of September, growth estimates stood at 29.2%. Of the 19 index companies that had already reported, 84% surpassed analyst expectations, with their combined earnings surpassing estimates by 4.9%.
Looking ahead, analysts predict continued strong profit growth through the end of 2026. Fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year, with full-year growth estimated at 32.4%. Notably, about 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates come from semiconductor and hardware firms. Barclays research also indicates these companies are responsible for roughly 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates, underscoring the tech sector’s significant role in current earnings updates.
Rising Interest Rates Coincide with Market Milestone
The upward trend in stocks occurs alongside elevated interest rates and high U.S. government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Officials indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained persistent. The median projections for 2026 economic growth are 2.3%, with unemployment expected to be at 4.1%. The Fed’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled for October 27-28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields stay elevated as the stock market marks its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.60%. Despite these high borrowing costs, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% that day, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.6%. U.S. equities are now approaching five years of growth near record levels, supported by robust earnings and higher interest rates.